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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.