UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.